Browsing Tag

Superforecasting

Book Reviews,

Best Books of 2016 (so far)

I’ve read over 50 books in the first six months of the year, and some of them were really good. Here are the best books of 2016 (so far).

I thoroughly enjoyed The Oregon Trail: A New American Journey by Rinker Buck. There’s some profanity, and I don’t agree with his opinions on religion, but how can I resist a story of two aging baby-boomer brothers who buy a wagon and mule team, then travel the Oregon Trail? Between angry property owners and Wal-Mart stops, they see some amazing places and have the experience of a lifetime. Oh, and …

Book Reviews,

Superforecasting

What is Superforecasting? Well imagine the ability to consistently predict world events, or the stock market, or even an election. Philip Tetlock has spent the last decade overseeing a government funded contest to see who the best forecasters really are. And the findings are in the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

Asking very specific questions, such as will North Korea detonate a nuclear bomb between January and March, Tetlock was able to track forecasters without giving them a lot of wiggle room. He takes on the television pundits who boldly predict world events but state those …