Browsing Tag

Dan Gardner

Book Reviews,

Superforecasting

What is Superforecasting? Well imagine the ability to consistently predict world events, or the stock market, or even an election. Philip Tetlock has spent the last decade overseeing a government funded contest to see who the best forecasters really are. And the findings are in the book Superforecasting: The Art and Science of Prediction.

Asking very specific questions, such as will North Korea detonate a nuclear bomb between January and March, Tetlock was able to track forecasters without giving them a lot of wiggle room. He takes on the television pundits who boldly predict world events but state those …